MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2265

ACUS11 KWNS 280015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280015
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST THU DEC 27 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 280015Z - 280345Z

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH RATES 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTER IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF LBB
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SPS
AROUND 06 UTC. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM PRESENTLY OVERSPREADING AREA...WHICH
IS CLEARLY DEPICTED BY LARGE DEVELOPING/COOLING CLOUD SHIELD ON IR
IMAGERY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION FROM PVW TO
AMA...AND BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND SREF THE POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
OR POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PANHANDLES
TO EXTREME SWRN KS. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AND SNOW RATES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION WILL LOCALLY
EXCEED 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

FARTHER NEWD LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP...BUT SOME BANDING OF THE
SNOW MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AS THE 850
LOW CENTER MOVES TO WRN OK BY 06 UTC. GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP DENDRITIC PROFILE OVER KS /ABOUT 150 MB LAYER
PER 18 UTC NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH
PER HOUR LATER THIS EVENING.

.BRIGHT.. 12/28/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

35240264 35720275 36200263 37000201 37860104 38579987
38889850 38929793 38279714 37539730 36519824 35009988
34050130 34230196

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