Sunday, December 30, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2274

ACUS11 KWNS 301325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301325
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL INTO CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301325Z - 301500Z

ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW PRIOR TO NOON.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
E-CNTRL NC WWD TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOP...SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE
E OF CSG...AND CONTINUING SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE E OF PNS. THE MOST
VIGOROUS TSTM ACTIVITY AS OF 13Z WAS OCCURRING FROM BARBOUR COUNTY
IN SERN AL SWWD INTO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FL
PNHDL...ALONG WRN EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS STREAMING NEWD
FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WHILE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE LIMITING THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PER 12Z TLH SOUNDING...MIDLEVEL COOLING FROM
THE W /REF 12Z LIX SOUNDING/ COUPLED WITH A WARMING/MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH STEADILY
STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS SUCH...ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
SURFACE-BASED BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

.MEAD.. 12/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

30448646 31348567 32118472 32858334 32648277 32068236
31038317 30268413 29778484 29808597

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