Tuesday, January 1, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 01 2008

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN FL...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD AND EXTENDED FROM VCNTY KRSW-KVRB AT 19Z.
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MAINTAINING
MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS...RESULTING IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.
THOUGH PRIMARY BURST OF MORNING TSTMS HAS DIMINISHED...RENEWED
SWELLING BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER EXTREME SRN FL.
THESE MAY DEVELOP INTO ISOLD TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE...BUT DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

..ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
POTENT UPR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL NY AT MID-AFTN WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ASSOCD STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7 HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/ERN NY WITH ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED EARLIER. THOUGH A COUPLE MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE NY/NEW ENGLAND BORDER THROUGH LATE
AFTN...PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

.RACY.. 01/01/2008

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