SWODY1
SPC AC 100053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST WED JAN 09 2008
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM
-- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW -- ANALYZED INITIALLY OVER SWRN
KS...IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS SRN KS THROUGH 10/12Z.
ACCOMPANYING/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS
SERN NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE OVER NW TX AND WRN OK...AND REMAIN WELL W
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INITIALLY
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...FROM NWRN SC TO AL COAST TO ABOUT 100
NM OFFSHORE MIDDLE TX COAST...SHOULD RETREAT NWWD ACROSS NWRN AND
N-CENTRAL GULF TOWARD COASTAL LA AND SE TX. PRIND FAVORABLE MARINE
AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
F...WILL REMAIN LARGELY OVER WATER BUT MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS SERN
LA AND EXTREME SRN MS.
..CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS SERN AL AND SRN GA
MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BASED ON OBSERVED LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
1.25-1.4 INCH GPS PW READINGS.
BY CONTRAST...CONVECTION ACROSS NRN PORTIONS MS/AL IS ROOTED ABOVE
SFC AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. ALTHOUGH SUPPORTED IN PART BY MOISTURE
PLUME ACCOMPANYING 20-30 KT SWLY LLJ...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
AREA OF VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ELEVATED BUOYANCY GENERALLY
AOB 300 J/KG SHOULD MINIMIZE SVR POTENTIAL.
FARTHER W...HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
ACROSS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER E TX
AND PORTIONS LA. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCIES PRIOR TO 12Z
WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF SVR PROBABILITIES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM LATE IN PERIOD WITHIN RETREATING FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS LA/MS AND PERHAPS SE TX. MODIFIED FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE
SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED
ABOVE SFC.
.EDWARDS.. 01/10/2008
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