DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190543
SWODY1
SPC AC 190540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING...
UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO PACIFIC NW. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MEXICO/DEEP S
TX WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS ENTRAINED INTO CONFLUENT AIRFLOW REGIME
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN
GULF AND NRN FL PENINSULA...BEFORE REFORMING/RE-INTENSIFYING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WAVE TO THE NE.

..FL...

SURFACE FRONT NOW QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PENINSULA WILL LIFT
NWD TODAY WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NERN GULF. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP NWD AT LEAST
INTO THE CNTRL PENINSULA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MLCAPES TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG COLD
FRONT WHERE ZONE OF STRONGER MESOSCALE FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME THE WEAK LAPSE RATES. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING UPDRAFT
INTENSITY/LONGEVITY. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW
ATTM.

.MEAD.. 01/19/2008

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