SWODY1
SPC AC 211247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST MON JAN 21 2008
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..E TX TODAY TO NW LA/SRN AR/NW MS TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST REGION IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AIR MASS MODIFICATION
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND NWD/NEWD MOISTURE ADVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG THE DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO E
TX/AR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM ATOP THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST BY LATE TODAY...WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED AROUND 800 MB/ FARTHER INLAND OVER E TX.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA AND MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER.
..CENTRAL/NRN CA COAST...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ORE/NRN CA WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...TRANSLATION OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM OFFSHORE OVER THE MOISTURE SOURCE REGION WILL RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-32 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB...AND POTENTIALLY
WEAK BUOYANCY /MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG/ CLOSE TO THE COAST.
.THOMPSON.. 01/21/2008
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