Monday, January 28, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280546
SWODY1
SPC AC 280543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/LARGER TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE SECOND/LARGER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..NE TX ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
MARGINAL/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 29/06Z...AND THEN
INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MEAGER INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT NO MORE THAN SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.

..FOUR CORNERS REGION...
SHOWERS/SPORADIC LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT HOWEVER FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.GOSS.. 01/28/2008

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