SWODY1
SPC AC 310053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THIS IS
ACCOMPANYING WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A
BELT OF MOISTENING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT...DOWNSTREAM OF A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. INLAND OF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...MOISTURE RETURN STILL
APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE A RATHER DEEP COOL/DRY LAYER FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 850 MB. THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS PROBABLE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO WEAK CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE
CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MOIST RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL
MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SIGNIFICANT RECENT COLD INTRUSION...
SUFFICIENT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE TONIGHT. INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS...THIS LIKELY WILL STILL BE BASED ABOVE A RESIDUAL
NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. BUT...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR
AND STEEPENING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...AS
IT FINALLY TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS COULD
INITIATE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 31/09-12Z. IF THIS OCCURS...A
RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ARE
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 31/12Z ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...WHEN/WHERE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE INITIATION OF WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THIS OCCURS...BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A VERY
LOW RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
.KERR.. 01/31/2008
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