Wednesday, January 23, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 232002
SWODY1
SPC AC 232000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST WED JAN 23 2008

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN FL...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL
FL AND WWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND SURFACE HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAVE DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED BY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 5.5 TO 6 C/KM WITH MLCAPE AOB
500 J/KG. COMBINATION OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..CNTRL CA COASTAL AREA...

AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
THROUGH CUTOFF UPPER LOW ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE CA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
EVENING.

.DIAL.. 01/23/2008

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