SWODY1
SPC AC 290058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD
FROM NERN TX NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE STRONG -- AND OTHERWISE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...AND ELEVATED ABOVE A SURFACE-BASED STABLE
LAYER. WHILE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...THREAT FOR
SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AT BEST.
SLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS TX -- PERHAPS REDUCING THE DEGREE OF STABILITY IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALLOW A VERY
LIMITED THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER TO EVOLVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
..FOUR CORNERS REGION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA OF UT/CO/AZ/NWRN NM...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THIS REGION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD WITH TIME IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH...AS WILL AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES.
.GOSS.. 01/29/2008
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