Friday, January 25, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251633
SWODY1
SPC AC 251630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2008

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
FLOW EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE LWR 48 AS W CST TROUGH
REDEVELOPS SW INTO THE E PACIFIC AND A SERIES OF FLAT WAVES TOP
ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. POLAR OR MODIFIED
POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS AT THE SFC.

..SE TX/LA...
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD GRADUALLY E
FROM SE TX TO THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
HIGH LVL SPEED MAX MOVES FROM TX TO THE SERN STATES. FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BASED AT
ROUGHLY 700 MB. GIVEN CONTINUED WAA AT THAT LEVEL AND RELATIVELY
COOL PROFILES PRESENT UP TO ABOUT 400 MB...SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION/CHARGE SEPARATION MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF
EMBEDDED TSTMS. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND E INTO LA THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO MS BY EVENING.

..CSTL CA...
SATELLITE SHOWS VERY COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO REFORM SSW OFF THE
CA CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
SWRN U.S. SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER ALONG
THE SRN CA CST. EMBEDDED THUNDER PROBABILITIES WITH WARM CONVEYOR
BAND ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY N AND GRADUALLY
LESSEN WITH TIME AS MAIN UPR TROUGH REDEVELOPS W ACROSS THE PACIFIC.

.CORFIDI.. 01/25/2008

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