Saturday, January 12, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130057
SWODY1
SPC AC 130054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2008

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FL PENINSULA...
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SERN U.S AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NRN FL WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S F. WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FL PENINSULA BUT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE AREA
WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS NEAR MELBOURNE WHERE SBCAPE VALUES
ARE STILL NEAR 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST MELBOURNE WSR-88D
VWP SHOWS ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH.

.BROYLES.. 01/13/2008

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