SWODY1
SPC AC 010038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/EAST GULF COASTAL AREAS....
..CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...
A COLD DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
NOW IN THE PROCESS OF RETREATING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. AND...THIS IS WHERE A
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING.
THE MOST VIGOROUS ONGOING STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE FORCED BY THE STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW TAKING
ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE...ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. AND...THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...AS THE LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
BENEATH 40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE LARGE ACROSS THIS REGION. COUPLED WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR
TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 05-06Z. OTHERWISE...SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS
SOME HAIL...WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING SQUALL LINE AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO/THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... AND AREAS EAST OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TONIGHT.
..EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
WHILE A SHALLOW...POTENTIALLY COLD/STABLE...SURFACE BASED AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INLAND OF EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
NON-NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
.KERR.. 02/01/2008
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