SWODY2
SPC AC 100623
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TIDEWATER REGION SWD
INTO ERN NC...
..SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL
APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH THE NERN
STATES IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG
COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EWD...REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SRN EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH NRN FL.
..TIDEWATER REGION INTO ERN NC...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER IPW IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IS ALREADY PRESENT TO THE S OF
WEDGE FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NC. THE RETREAT OF
THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP NWD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S INTO THE DELMARVA AND LOWER 60S ACROSS ERN
NC. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME STEEPENING
OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TSTMS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN MORE THAT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...THOUGH THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER ISALLOBARIC
FORCING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR...HOWEVER EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS FAR N AS NJ WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE.
..SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM
REGION. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.
.MEAD.. 01/10/2008
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