Tuesday, January 29, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290557
SWODY2
SPC AC 290555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..E TX/UPR TX CST...
STG UPR SYSTEM...NOW W OF BC...WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WED
AFTN...THEN TO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE WED NIGHT. 21Z SREF AND
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE POINT TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS COMPARED TO 00Z GFS/NAM...WHICH HAS IMPACTS ON PSBL SVR
TSTMS OVER E TX/UPR TX CST LATE IN THE PD. THIS FCST WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. LOW/MID-LVL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK LATE
WED...WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASING...ESP AFT 06Z THU OVER
THE REGION. MSTR WILL LIKELY FLOW NWD BENEATH A CAP ALOFT...BUT
SERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APCHG SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THIS MOIST AXIS AROUND 12Z THU.
THUS...TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RISKS FOR TSTMS...INCLUDING PSBL
SVR...WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PD.

..FOUR-CORNERS REGION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD JUST OFFSHORE BC WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES REGION BY WED
AFTN. VERY STRONG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT H5 JET
COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-TROP LAPSE RATES /H5 TEMP MINUS 35 DEG C/
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SPORADIC TSTMS
VCNTY THE FOUR-CORNERS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVE.

.RACY.. 01/29/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: