DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270724
SWODY3
SPC AC 270722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MID-SOUTH/LWR OH VLY...
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON MON
WILL TREND NEGATIVE-TILT AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GRTLKS...OH AND TN
VLYS TUE AFTN/EVE. PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN NWD THROUGH
LKSUP AND NRN ONT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD FROM THE
PLAINS EARLY TUE TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WED.

BIMODAL TSTM THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND THE
OH/TN VLYS ON TUE. MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE APCHG COLD FRONT...WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 50 DEG F ALONG THE
OH RVR TO THE LWR 60S ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/LA BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY
BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE TN VLY SWWD
INTO LA DURING THE AFTN...ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR WILL BE MORE ROBUST ACROSS THESE
REGIONS...RELATIVELY WARM MID-LVLS WILL EXIST INITIALLY...MITIGATING
LAPSE RATES. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE OVERALL INSTABILITY FIELDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTN AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
COOLING TAKE PLACE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON HOW INSTABILITY FIELDS EVOLVE. FOR
NOW WILL INCLUDE SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK/LOW SVR PROBABILITIES.

FARTHER N...MID-TROP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEPER OWING TO
THE CORE OF THE UPR WAVE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. LARGER
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AS WELL. SO...DESPITE
SCANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MULTIPLE FORCED BANDS OF
CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE OH VLY/MIDWEST TUE AFTN.
IF SOME MOMENTUM /55+ KTS AT H85/ CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO THE
GROUND...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL RESULT. THIS THREAT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR INCLUSION OF LOW SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

.RACY.. 01/27/2008

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