SWODY3
SPC AC 280714
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WED. STG UPR SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUE WILL
EXIT INTO THE NRN ATLC BASIN ON WED. NEXT IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS...NOW S OF THE ALEUTIANS...WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY INTO THE WRN
STATES BY EARLY WED...THEN REACH THE SRN PLAINS BY 12Z THU.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE FORMER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PENETRATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. THUS...AS THE LOW/MID-LVL
FLOW BEGIN TO BACK LATE WED NIGHT OVER THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF THE
APCHG UPR SYSTEM...MSTR WILL BE POISED TO RETURN QUICKLY...MOST
LIKELY BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION PER FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT...AS THE
LARGER SCALE ASCENT EDGES EWD...PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
INCREASE VERY LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME WED NIGHT. IF THE CAP
CAN ERODE SUFFICIENTLY VIA MOISTENING/LIFT...THE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR PSBL STG STORMS WITH HAIL. GIVEN THAT THIS
THREAT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE DAY 3
PD...AND THE OVERALL SENSITIVITY TO ANY SVR THREAT MODULATED BY THE
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE UPR SYSTEM...WILL NOT INCLUDE SVR
PROBABILITIES THIS FCST CYCLE.
.RACY.. 01/28/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment