DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290733
SWODY3
SPC AC 290732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF CST
AND DEEP S...

..GULF CST/DEEP S...
STG MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z
THU WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPR LOW AND TRANSLATE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY
THU NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW OVER N TX EARLY THU WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY THU NIGHT WHILE A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NWRN GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL LA...CNTRL
MS...NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN BY THU EVENING...BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING
NWD INTO SRN IND/SWRN OH BY 12Z FRI.

THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LEAD WAVE MOVING JUST N OF THE REGION
ON MON-TUE IS QUITE STRONG AND MAY PENETRATE INTO THE GULF BASIN
FARTHER THAN EARLIER FCST. NONETHELESS...A RAPID BACKING OF THE
LOW/MID-LVL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY EARLY THU...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF CST REGION AND DEEP S. MAJORITY OF THIS
DERIVED LIFT WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MAY LIMIT NWD
RETURN OF MORE ROBUST MSTR INTO MUCH OF THE DEEP S. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AT LEAST LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT INTO SERN
LA INTO CSTL MS/AL/FL...WITH 50S EXPECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL MS/AL.

VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THIS EVOLVING
WARM SECTOR THU AFTN...SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING A SQUALL LINE.
100+ KT OF SSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP STRONG SLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR INTO THE SUPERCELL RANGE. ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...PARTICULARLY ALONG
NWD EDGE OF MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE TSTMS RAPIDLY MOVE
ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS/AL. THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND TIME THROUGH THU NIGHT.

FARTHER N...AT LEAST AN ISOLD HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST INTO PARTS OF NRN MS/AL ALONG THE TRACK OF STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS DURING THE AFTN/EVE. HERE...NRN EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N THE WARM SECTOR CAN
DEVELOP.

.RACY.. 01/29/2008

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