SWOD48
SPC AC 100856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN THE NEWD PROGRESSION
OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE SERN STATES ON
DAY 4 /SUN JAN 13TH/. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OR REFORM OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...THOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED FOR
INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA.
THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A PROGRESSIVE TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC REGIME WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
DO EXIST IN THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON DAY 8
/THU JAN 17TH/...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW ATTM.
.MEAD.. 01/10/2008
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