SWOD48
SPC AC 112229
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2008
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND GULF MON/TUE WITH THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALMOST
NIL.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE CENTER HALF OF THE COUNTRY WED INTO THU...RESULTING IN STRONG
MID/UPPER SWLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...11/00Z MREF...GFS AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
WRN/CENTRAL GULF WED...AND MOVING THIS SYSTEM NEWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES ON THU JAN 17TH...DAY 7. CURRENT FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH
WOULD ADVECT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE SERN
STATES...WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL/GA AND SC. HOWEVER...INCONSISTENCIES IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND POTENTIAL FOR A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH...WITH CONSEQUENTLY WEAKER SURFACE WAVE/MOISTURE RETURN...
PRECLUDES A 30% PROBABILITY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER ATTM.
.IMY.. 01/11/2008
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