SWOD48
SPC AC 290942
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER NOAM
THROUGH THE DAY 8 PD WITH PREDICTABILITY BECOMING LOWER WITH TIME.
THE STG SYSTEM OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY FRI WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE
NEWD OUT OF THE NERN STATES BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCD COLD
FRONT SETTLING INTO FL AND THE GULF BASIN.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE WRN STATES...WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SWRN ATLC
BUILDING NWWD. BY NEXT TUE...DAY 8...ECMWF IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED
WITH ANOTHER STG MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LATEST
GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND ARE SLOWER WITH THE WAVE.
MODIFIED GULF MSTR WILL LIKELY STREAM NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
LWR MS VLY WITH TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. BUT...POOR
MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL RESULT IN MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION/PSBL SVR WEATHER RISKS.
.RACY.. 01/29/2008
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