SWOD48
SPC AC 310929
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION...
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND ITS EVENTUAL
MOVEMENT INTO THE CNTRL/ERN STATES. AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES...THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD NWWD WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF SLY RETURN FLOW LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE SERN 1/4 OF THE
COUNTRY. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS HAVE COME MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORTER WAVELENGTH
FEATURES IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH A BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
PROSPECTS FOR A QUALITY WARM SECTOR...THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ON DAY 6...06 FEB ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
OZARKS...LWR MS VLY...MID-SOUTH...AND TN VLY.
.RACY.. 01/31/2008
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