Thursday, January 10, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0042

ACUS11 KWNS 100926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100925
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/NERN TX THRU SRN AR/NRN LA INTO NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100925Z - 101130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SOME
HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN A NARROW
BROAD ARCING BAND FROM UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE UPPER
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN A ZONE OF STEEPER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE GENERALLY
MINIMIZED CAPE...AND...TO THIS POINT...SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

HOWEVER...LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOW UNDERWAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS
BORDER AREA...NEAR THE INFLECTION BETWEEN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. AS...MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FROM PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CAPE FOR
SATURATING LIFTED PARCELS...ABOVE SURFACE BASED INVERSION THROUGH
THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD
ELECTRIFICATION. THOUGH CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1000
J/KG...GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OR SO...MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IN
THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS.

.KERR.. 01/10/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33728937 33359026 32539129 31949243 31759311 31419427
32009453 32769445 33459344 34569166 34939054 34748910

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