Sunday, January 13, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0066

ACUS11 KWNS 140430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140430
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-140930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CT...CNTRL AND WRN MA...EXTRM SE VT...SRN NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 140430Z - 140930Z

..HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...OCCASIONALLY 3 INCHES
PER HOUR BEGINNING BY 05 UTC AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA
THROUGH 12 UTC...

INITIALLY COOL AND DRY LOW LEVELS THAT WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
WILL COOL TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. STRONG EAST TO EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REINFORCE THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE LOW INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE
OF MARYLAND/DELAWARE INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO JUST OFF CAPE COD BY
12 UTC. MAXIMUM FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WITH VERY STRONG/MOIST ASCENT.
RUC TEMPERATURE AND WET-BULB CROSS-SECTIONS MAINTAIN A RAPID
TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CONNECTICUT TO
SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. PROXIMITY OF FORECAST ELEVATED CAPE
ROOTED IN 900 TO 850 MB LAYER...OF AROUND 50 J/KG IMMEDIATELY
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA...MAY RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOW RATES OF 3
INCHES PER HOUR IN CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDER/LIGHTNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 08 TO 09 UTC
WITH MAXIMUM FORCING AND ONLY TAPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH 12 UTC. TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.BOTHWELL.. 01/14/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...

41827350 42397336 42677301 42877274 43377216 43717136
43717099 43397087 43197086 43057092 42917101 42697115
42447132 42217170 42007217 41757254 41757301

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