SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141209
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-141715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CT...NRN RI...MA...SRN NH...SRN AND ERN ME
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 141209Z - 141715Z
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN AND ERN ME LATER THIS MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
MOVING NEWD INTO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AREA. SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE
COD WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS
CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF NRN CT...NRN RI INTO CNTRL MA AND SRN
NH. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SPREADING NWD. THIS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ZONE OF STRONGEST 800-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD WITH TIME
THROUGH SERN NH AND ME. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVER SRN ME. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE-700 MB LAYER IS
RELATIVELY DRY IN THIS REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE ONSET OF HEAVIER
SNOW IN ME WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 14Z OR 15Z WHEN THE
INCREASING ASCENT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER...SUGGESTING SOME LOCAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
.DIAL.. 01/14/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...ALY...
42797090 42357108 41947148 41887211 42347265 43177232
44647051 45746830 45246740 44586740 43896993
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment