SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310938
OKZ000-KSZ000-311515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 310938Z - 311515Z
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH RATES
OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE RED RIVER BETWEEN
CHILDRESS AND WICHITA FALLS TX...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK/EASTERN KS. AS
SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST...INITIAL DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL FAVOR QUICK WET-BULB/EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH ONSET
OF HIGHER OMEGA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY 06Z NAM/RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 03Z SREF GUIDANCE. THESE SAME MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH A DEEP/SATURATED DENDRITIC
LAYER...FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. AS
MID LEVEL /800-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MODEST SLANTWISE INSTABILITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOWFALL
RATES...AND SOME THUNDERSNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OK
AROUND/AFTER 12Z. IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS
THROUGH EARLY/MID MORNING.
.GUYER.. 01/31/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
36319972 37009955 37769856 37739671 37089579 36339573
35639662 35349905 35599961
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