SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311123
LAZ000-TXZ000-311400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SE TX...INCLUDING MID/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN...SWRN LA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 311123Z - 311400Z
TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SLOWLY ARE INCREASING WITHIN 50-70 NM
WIDE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NE TX SWWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
SAT AREA. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SVR THREAT MAY BE GREATER TO ITS SE.
THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...ACROSS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...POTENTIAL
SHOULD INCREASE FOR TSTMS THAT ARE EITHER DISCRETE...OR LESS DENSELY
CLUSTERED THAN THOSE EVIDENT ATTM IN CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55
KT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY I-10...LA BORDER...GULF
COAST...AND NERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING THAT SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN
PSX-SAT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS MAY BE IN
THIS AREA...WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
AND BUOYANT LAYER ABOVE IS DEEPEST. MUCAPES WILL DIMINISH WITH NWD
EXTENT...BUT COOLNESS OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL PROFILES MAY HELP TO
MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC AS FAR N AS
E-CENTRAL TX.
FARTHER S OVER GULF...AND PERHAPS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREA...STABLE LAYER MAY BECOME SHALLOW/WARM ENOUGH FOR EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS TO REACH SFC DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
INTRODUCE THREAT FOR DAMAGING SFC GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS INDICATED BY TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS
WHERE SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS REACH AT LEAST UPPER 60S AND MID 60S F
RESPECTIVELY...ALONG AND S OF MARINE/WARM FRONT. SFC MESOANALYSIS
AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FRONT IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS
MATAGORDA AND SRN BRAZORIA COUNTIES AS OF 11Z...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN
RUC PROGS AND MORE SIMILAR TO NAM. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...SMALL
TORNADO WW MAY BE REQUIRED...WHICH ALSO MAY EXTEND INTO LA FOR
THREAT CARRYING INTO MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
.EDWARDS.. 01/31/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
29179797 31179644 31869576 31949441 31459379 30779330
29739294 29779341 29429468 29309474 29069513 28899532
28429634 28689671 28909724 28909788
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