MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0122

ACUS11 KWNS 010135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010134
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-010300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 31...

VALID 010134Z - 010300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 31 CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.

QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE TONIGHT WITH NRN PORTION OF
SYSTEM ACCELERATING EWD AT AROUND 40 KT. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MORE
DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AHEAD OF
TRAILING PORTION OF MCS FROM BALDWIN COUNTY AL SWD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT ACCELERATING PORTION OF MCS /MAINLY NEAR AND NE OF GZH/ IS
LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW...NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...BASE VELOCITY DATA FROM FT. RUCKER AL INDICATE HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENT...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE.

ALONG THE GULF COAST...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS IS
SLOWLY DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF MCS WITH MLCAPES OF 100-400 J/KG FROM
MOBILE BAY EWD INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. CURRENT EGLIN AFB VWP
INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE STRONGLY SHEARED
AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITH MCS ITSELF OR
WITHIN MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSHEAR.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE SUSTAINED/ROTATING STORMS.

.MEAD.. 02/01/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

32488842 31878493 30668475 29958484 29058490 29628637
29778779 29888849 32268852

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