Thursday, February 14, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140546
SWODY1
SPC AC 140544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST WED FEB 13 2008

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..4 CORNERS REGION...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
LOW WILL DROP SWD INTO AZ DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS SPEED MAX
ROTATES INTO NRN MEXICO. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...H5 AOB
MINUS 30...ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..SOUTHERN PLAINS...

POLAR HIGH WILL FORCE COLD FRONT THROUGH OK INTO NORTH TX DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL
PRECLUDE ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

.DARROW.. 02/14/2008

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