Wednesday, February 20, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200551
SWODY1
SPC AC 200548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN TX/SRN OK/FAR NW LA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO SOUTH AND EAST TX
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. A LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE TX COAST TODAY IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
NWD TONIGHT AS A SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO WCNTRL TX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG
THE RED RIVER FROM SOUTHWEST OK EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NE TX IN
RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT SHOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRIMARILY ABOVE 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DURING THE
DAY 1 PERIOD.

.BROYLES.. 02/20/2008

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