SWODY1
SPC AC 241252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CENTRAL CA TODAY...
A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 39 N 127 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NRN CA
TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
PRECEDED BY AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CA AND NV THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES N OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL SPREAD INLAND TODAY
OVER CENTRAL CA WITH THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW...WHILE A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS MAY ALLOW LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED WITH
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN BACKED IN THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
GUSTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
..SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WILL SAG SWD TO
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
..NRN MS THIS MORNING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN A SMALL AREA OF NW MS THIS
MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD FROM MO/AR TO WRN TN/NRN MS. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT
15-16Z ACROSS NRN MS...BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGRESSES E OF
THE LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS.
..JUST OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER
THE MS VALLEY. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING
NEAR THE NE SC/SRN NC COAST. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER.
.THOMPSON.. 02/24/2008
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