SWODY1
SPC AC 031229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..FAR ERN TX INTO MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY...AHEAD OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WRN U.S. TODAY. SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION
INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG NOSE OF 40+ KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF LA. DEEP ASCENT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
WILL SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MODELS CONSISTENT IN PULLING SWLY
LLJ NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY...
WHICH WILL SHIFT BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS ENEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER
VALLEYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MUCAPE
/LIKELY BASED ABOVE H85/ FOR A FEW STRONGER CORES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7 C/KM OBSERVED AT JAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
..MO...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AREA OF MOIST CONVECTION OVER FAR
ERN KS/WRN MO DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40+ KT SSWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...
INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM WITH MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG...SUGGESTING HAIL COULD
BE PRODUCED BY STRONGER CORES INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO.
..WESTERN U.S...
BROAD AREA OF MOIST CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE COLD OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION AND LIMIT CHARGE-SEPARATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH A SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY OCCUR OVER THE NRN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY AREA FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM PARTS
OF CA ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF AZ/WRN NM.
.EVANS.. 02/03/2008
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