SWODY1
SPC AC 191930
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2008
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...
A COLD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...ONE OF SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EMANATING
FROM AN UPSTREAM STRONG ZONAL MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...IS NOW IN
THE PROCESS OF DIGGING TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A BROADER SCALE TROUGH WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT UPPER FLOW NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...AND
APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 20/09-12Z.
MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A -26 TO
-28C 500 MB COLD CORE...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY APPRECIABLY
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DESPITE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FORCING
/DESTABILIZATION IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PACIFIC...AS AS DETECTED BY THE OCEANIC/LONG RANGE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. BASED ON THIS...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS
STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE COAST/COASTAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY
NEAR/SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.
.KERR.. 02/19/2008
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