DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030653
SWODY2
SPC AC 030651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/ERN OK ENEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN UPPER TROUGH TO PROGRESS EWD THIS PERIOD...WITH
DIGGING/SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH TO CROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND EMERGE
INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP INVOF ERN OK/NERN TX ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT -- WHICH
WILL BE SHIFTING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD.

..NERN TX/SERN OK NEWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS...WITHIN LARGE/DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF STRONG
WRN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AS FAR
N AS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED UVV WITHIN
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM THE OZARKS REGION NEWD
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SLY TO
SWLY -- ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN
DEVELOPING STORMS. THEREFORE...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS
REGION...PRIMARILY FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
WSWWD.

FURTHER W ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX...CAPPING SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS FRONT
APPROACHES AND WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASING UVV SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN AREAS FURTHER E...STRONG FLOW IN THE 700 TO
500 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ACROSS
THIS ENTIRE REGION -- FROM ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY.

.GOSS.. 02/03/2008

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