SWODY2
SPC AC 110616
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL
GULF COASTAL AREAS....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA....
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
INCLUDING SEVERAL WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES EMANATING
FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ONE OF THESE IMPULSES... PROGGED TO DIG
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED
AHEAD OF ANOTHER ELONGATED POLAR VORTEX DIGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER IMPULSE...DIGGING TO THE
REAR OF THE LEAD WAVE...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING FROM THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE EMANATING FROM
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE EVOLUTION OF A SHARPENING...MORE NEUTRAL
TILTED BROADER SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE NET RESULT BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DUE TO THE RECENT ARCTIC SURGE INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
STATES...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...TO LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT...AND
EVENTUALLY CUT OFF...THE ONGOING RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND...ANY
SIGNIFICANT INLAND SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE.
..WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A MOISTENING WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SPREAD INTO UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY TUESDAY. AND...MIXED LAYER CAPE
UP TO 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW /40-50 KT/ BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAY ENHANCE FORCED LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AN EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BEFORE THE MOST
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DEVELOPS OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING.
..FLORIDA...
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT. BUT...A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF/CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PENINSULA
EITHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
.KERR.. 02/11/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment