SWODY2
SPC AC 251730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AL THROUGH SRN
GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
..SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD
INTO THE SWRN U.S. WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA
IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND CONTRIBUTE
TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
ATTENDING INITIAL IMPULSE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND FL.
..AL...GA AND FL...
A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE ERN PARTS OF
THE SERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
TN...OH VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF REGION.
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD ADVECTION OF MID
60S DEWPOINTS INTO SRN AL AND SRN GA...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL
RETURN BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN
MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF SRN AL INTO SRN GA WITH
1000 TO 1500 J/KG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FL. SOME CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ONGOING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER
FORCING FROM PARTS OF THE MS INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. ACTIVITY
OVER MS COULD POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS
DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. NEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS FROM SRN GA INTO NRN FL. WSWLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..ERN CAROLINAS...
MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGION WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN FARTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY AS MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ADVECT
NWD. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A LINE OF LOWER TOPPED STORMS TO
UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP INTO THIS REGION.
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOW ECHOES
AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. DUE TO LINGERING CONCERNS
ABOUT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL MAINTAIN SEE TEXT WITH THIS
OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
.DIAL.. 02/25/2008
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