SWODY2
SPC AC 271629
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST WED FEB 27 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DISCUSSION...
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS PERIOD. A LARGE
CP SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ERN STATES WITH SELY FLOW
COMMENCING ACROSS ERN TX. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF
WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR A ROBUST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN. MODIFIED CP AIR WILL ADVECT THROUGH ERN TX BENEATH
A STRONG CAP. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...BUT
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING.
FARTHER NE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LOWER THROUGH MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE OVER SRN PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
.DIAL.. 02/27/2008
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