Monday, February 18, 2008

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180808
SWODY3
SPC AC 180806

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING TROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN
STATES. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO WRN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES REACHING THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A SECONDARY
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE SWD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PLAINS...MS AND OH VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL EXIST IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND SERN
TX THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.


..TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE
SURFACE LAYER.

..AZ...NM THROUGH WRN TX...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST ACROSS AZ AND NM
WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF WRN TX AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN WRN TX WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.DIAL.. 02/18/2008

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