DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200837
SWODY3
SPC AC 200834

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST WED FEB 20 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SHEAR NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MERGES
WITH NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. INITIAL WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE COLDER AIR OVER THE TN
VALLEY...AND MODELS SUGGEST SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS
UPPER JET ADVANCES EWD AND INTERCEPTS BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE NC
COAST. AS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY...TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN
STATES THIS PERIOD...REACHING SRN GA OR NRN FL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..SRN PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE...

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED INLAND SOUTH OF
RETREATING COASTAL FRONT FROM SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS AND SRN AL
EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO WSWLY AND SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN EWD ADVECTION OF RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA. INSTABILITY IN
THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MARGINAL DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF
THE MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER SE ALONG CONFLUENT WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST
WITHIN STRONG BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST MID LEVEL JET
ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VEERED
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AND A TENDENCY FOR THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 15%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

.DIAL.. 02/20/2008

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