SWODY3
SPC AC 240654
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OFFSHORE CA -- IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TO POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND DEAMPLIFY.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS -- ORIGINATING OVER WRN CANADA --
ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE INTO POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT WILL
REINFORCE/DEEPEN SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.
AT SFC...CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM OH VALLEY NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH ASSORTED
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS STRONGLY
FAVORED BY MODEL CONSENSUS. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD
ACROSS APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST...AND SEWD ACROSS
NRN GULF COAST AND NRN/WRN GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
..SERN CONUS...
TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH
DAYLIGHT HOURS...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND. AS STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC CYCLONE LIFTS WELL AWAY FROM THIS REGION...FLOW
SHOULD VEER AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ASSOCIATED WLY COMPONENT WILL ACT
TO LIMIT BOTH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...ACCOMPANYING SWLYS WILL ORIGINATE FROM LOOP CURRENT AREA
OF GULF AND MAY ADVECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS FL/GA IN
TIME FOR SFC HEATING TO WEAKEN CINH. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH HEATING AND MOISTENING -- MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
POSSIBLE INLAND -- TO BOOST MLCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AMIDST
40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT EWD AND
SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO NRN FL...AS COLD FRONT DOES
LIKEWISE...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF BOTH
SFC TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL LIFT.
.EDWARDS.. 02/24/2008
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