SWODY3
SPC AC 250716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...POSITIVELY TILTED AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA...BY
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. INITIAL CONTRIBUTING SHORTWAVE -- NOW OVER
GREAT BASIN REGION -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT
PLAINS...TN /OH VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAY-2...THEN
DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND BY 27/12Z.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS -- INCLUDING TWO NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN CANADA -- REINFORCE ERN
TROUGHING. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER MID
ATLANTIC...LIFTING NEWD OUT OF SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDLE OF
DAY-3 PERIOD...THEN EJECTING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC.
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN FL OR KEYS
AROUND 27/12Z.
..S FL/KEYS...
TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS S FL AND
ADJACENT WATERS...DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. MARINE AIR
MASS...ADVECTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM GULF...WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F. ASSOCIATED
THETAE ADVECTION MAY OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING TENDENCIES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH SHOULD BE
WEAK...LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL
INCLUDE WEAKNESS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM WLY
COMPONENT OF PREFRONTAL SFC WINDS. ANY SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TOO WEAK/CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES ATTM.
.EDWARDS.. 02/25/2008
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