SWOD48
SPC AC 020947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2008
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
MAJOR FEATURES DAY 4 /TUESDAY FEB. 5/ -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN ON
EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF DAY 4 AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH A SURFACE "BERMUDA"-TYPE HIGH FORECAST TO PERSIST...NWD RETURN
OF GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS FAR N AS THE OH
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ATTM IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 4 PERIOD.
ALONG WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND EVENT CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5...GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CONUS THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
.GOSS.. 02/02/2008
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