SWOD48
SPC AC 170907
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS TRANSITION TO MORE OR LESS A
SPLIT FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCKY
UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADA AND ADVANCING ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND
SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH DETAILS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...AND BEYOND ABOUT DAY 5
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH SLOWER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND MREF MEAN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND MAINTAIN A RISK AREA FOR DAY 5 FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR A SEVERE
THREAT IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE COMPLEX...TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DETAILS AND TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH.
.DIAL.. 02/17/2008
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