SWOD48
SPC AC 191012
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2008
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO DAY 4 WITH A SERIES OF
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE SRN U.S.. THE
PRIMARY WAVE OF INTEREST IS THE ONE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS THIS PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES DO EXIST REGARDING THE
DETAILS WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN
THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS. IN EITHER CASE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ALONG WITH RETREATING
MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
SMALL UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO ADVANCE INTO SRN PARTS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.
.DIAL.. 02/19/2008
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