SWOD48
SPC AC 200940
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST WED FEB 20 2008
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION...
GFS...ECMWF AND MREF MAINTAIN SIMILARITIES IN EVOLUTION OF OVERALL
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS IS THAT A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
UPPER FLOW REGIME SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT DAY 6...THEN
TRANSITION TO A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY DAY 7 WITH A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN THE EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WEST. DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS DO EXIST REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THROUGH ABOUT DAY 6 THE
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT...WHICH SUGGEST THERE WILL BE LIMITED TIME TO ADVECT QUALITY
MOISTURE INLAND AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE TO DEVELOP AN
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR INLAND WILL BE JUST HEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. DAY 6
INTO DAY 7. HOWEVER...CONCERNS REGARDING QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES LENDS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST TO INTRODUCE A
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
.DIAL.. 02/20/2008
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