SWOD48
SPC AC 270955
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED FEB 27 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT -- DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-3
OUTLOOK -- IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF
MARINE MODIFICATION OVER GULF OF MEXICO...UNDISTURBED BY ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL SURGES AFTER PRESENT ONE. THIS SCENARIO BOOSTS PROBABILITY
OF FAVORABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR UPPER
TROUGHING EPISODE...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND PACIFIC NW
DAY-4/SAT-SUN...THEN AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS DAYS
5-6/SUN-TUE. ECMWF FCSTS MORE WWD/SOONER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHOSE EARLIER SRN STREAM DOMINANCE WOULD FAVOR LOW LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE CLOSER TO GULF MOISTURE. BY CONTRAST...OPERATIONAL
GFS AND MANY MREF MEMBERS -- WHICH ARE GFS BASED -- DELAY SRN STREAM
DEEPENING UNTIL TROUGHING REACHES SERN CONUS DAYS 6-7/MON-WED. EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF REPRESENTS OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...WILL LEAN HEAVILY
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION IN OUTLINING POSSIBLE SEVERE EPISODE FROM SRN
PLAINS/W GULF COAST STATES TO SERN CONUS DAYS 5-6/SUN-TUE. ECMWF IS
MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUNS...ITS RECENT VERIFICATION
RECORD IS MORE ROBUST...AND MANY MREF MEMBERS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING
TOWARD LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.
.EDWARDS.. 02/27/2008
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