DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290924
SWOD48
SPC AC 290924

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

..A REGIONAL SVR WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...DEEP S AND SERN STATES...

..DISCUSSION...
SRN PORTION OF A POSITIVE-TILT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WILL CUT-OFF INTO A LOW...THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY
BEFORE TURNING NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRTLKS REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT
EARLY ON MONDAY OVER CNTRL TX. THIS LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS
IT MIGRATES NEWD ACROSS THE MS DELTA MONDAY AFTN...MIDDLE TN EARLY
TUESDAY AND NY STATE BY EARLY THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG-SVR SQUALL
LINE.

AT LEAST MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NWD IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DEEP S AND THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF AR AND ERN/CNTRL TX. THIS LINE WILL GROW STRONGER AND
EXPAND SWD INTO THE WRN GULF BASIN AS THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD DURING MONDAY AFTN. THE SQUALL LINE WILL
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS THE LWR MS/DEEP S WITH
ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER PSBL...THOUGH PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE
DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY OVER THE SERN STATES/ERN CAROLINAS AS THE STRONGEST
ASCENT/LLJ AXIS BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LATER IN THE WEEK...PREDICTABILITY BECOMES LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN/CNTRL STATES IN THE
WED-FRI TIME FRAME. IF THE TIMING IS AS FAST AS THE ECMWF/GFS
SUGGEST...SHORT WAVELENGTHS BETWEEN THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM AND THIS
IMPULSE WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW SUFFICIENT TIME FOR GULF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT QUALITY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO TX/LWR
MS VLY.

.RACY.. 02/29/2008

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