Monday, February 4, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0143

ACUS11 KWNS 050148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050148
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050148Z - 050315Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE...NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SOME INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 04-05Z...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION...THE TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL WARMING...AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS POLAR IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...MAY
ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.KERR.. 02/05/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35549708 35889673 36669588 37039512 36699453 36149475
35369585 35119691

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