MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0145

ACUS11 KWNS 050345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050344
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-050515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MISSOURI/ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32...

VALID 050344Z - 050515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32
CONTINUES.

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS MISSOURI...JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR ONGOING NARROW BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AT
LEAST UNTIL UPSTREAM SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU...SOMETIME AFTER 06-08Z. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING RISK
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT WITHIN THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE
SHALLOW STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

.KERR.. 02/05/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...TSA...

36549463 37709417 38749230 39938991 40818805 39828789
37219258

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