Tuesday, February 12, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0220

ACUS11 KWNS 130425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130425
FLZ000-GAZ000-130600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 54...

VALID 130425Z - 130600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 54 CONTINUES.

SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

LATE THIS EVENING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL GA
SWWD THROUGH SWRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WEST OF TALLAHASSEE. THE
LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. OVERALL TRENDS DURING PAST HOUR
HAVE BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND DUE
MOST LIKELY TO THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SWRN GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW MUCAPE AOB 300
J/KG AND TRENDS IN LIGHTNING INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE WITH
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING CURRENTLY OBSERVED. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS AND SUPERCELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
REMAIN MODEST AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

.DIAL.. 02/13/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

30958457 31748415 31638322 30948312 30178332 29908365
29948450 29868497

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